- MIDTERM ELECTIONS 2018 POLLS UPDATE
- MIDTERM ELECTIONS 2018 POLLS REGISTRATION
- MIDTERM ELECTIONS 2018 POLLS VERIFICATION
(For more details, see “ Methodology.”) This process of verifying voter turnout helps to correct for the tendency of some people to overreport voting and is generally regarded as providing a more accurate picture of the electorate.
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MIDTERM ELECTIONS 2018 POLLS VERIFICATION
For the panelists interviewed in 2016, their 2016 vote history is based on verification with three additional commercial voter files, as described in an earlier report.
MIDTERM ELECTIONS 2018 POLLS REGISTRATION
Researchers attempted to match the panelists to two different commercial voter files that contain official records of voter registration and turnout for 20. 28, 2018 among all members of the panel at that time. 12, 2016, after the general election that year and interviews conducted Aug. It also draws on interviews conducted among 3,770 of the panelists from Nov. 7-16, 2018, shortly after the general election. This analysis is based on interviews with 10,640 members of Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel conducted Nov. Given their relatively lower turnout, midterm elections are not necessarily predictive of what will happen in the next presidential election, when many more American voters will take part. Voting patterns among several other large groups changed less, including Black voters, voters ages 65 and older, Protestants, regular churchgoers and women. Voting patterns in 2018 reflected a great deal of continuity with 2016, though Democratic candidates in 2018 did better among a few groups, notably men, young people and secular voters. Additionally, a small share of the gains came from people who voted for third-party candidates in 2016 they favored Democratic candidates over Republican candidates in 2018 by a narrow margin. Nonvoters in 2016 who turned out in 2018 voted heavily for Democratic candidates, accounting for about half of the Democratic gains. In combination, party loyalty, defection and turnout differences among 2016 voters accounted for a little less than half of the Democratic gains over Clinton’s two-point margin. Slightly more of Clinton’s than Trump’s voters turned out to vote in 2018. Among Americans who voted in both elections, Clinton’s 2016 voters supported Democrats in 2018 at a slightly higher rate than Trump’s voters supported Republican candidates.
MIDTERM ELECTIONS 2018 POLLS UPDATE
It provides an update and comparison with findings from our study of the 2016 electorate.Ĭompared with how Clinton fared in 2016, Democratic candidates for Congress in 2018 made gains from several sources. A new analysis of verified voters from Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel examines what 2016 voters and nonvoters did in the 2018 midterm elections and offers a detailed portrait of the demographic composition and vote choices of the 2018 electorate. Voter turnout as a share of the eligible population was 49%, the highest for a midterm election in 100 years.
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This increased support was sufficient for the Democratic Party to gain the majority in the House with a net pickup of 41 seats. House of Representatives in 2018, a gain of 7 percentage points. Here are the questions used for this report and its methodology.Ĭompared with Hillary Clinton’s 2-point popular vote advantage over Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, the Democratic Party expanded its margin over the Republican Party to 9 points in votes cast for the U.S. Panelists for whom a record of voting was located are considered validated voters all others are presumed not to have voted. Verification of voter turnout involved matching the panelists to two or more commercial voter files. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and many other characteristics.
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The surveys are weighted to be representative of the U.S. Everyone who took part is a member of Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel recruited through national, random sampling of telephone numbers or, since 2018, residential addresses. adults online in November 2018 and 4,183 adults in November and December 2016. adults online and verified their turnout in the two elections using commercial voter files that aggregate official state turnout records.
Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans voted in 2018 and how their turnout and vote choices differed from 2016.